Herz and Kiljański (2016)
|Herz and Kiljański (2016)|
|Title:||Movie Piracy and Displaced Sales in Europe: Evidence from Six Countries|
|Author(s):||Benedikt Herz, Kamil Kiljański|
|Citation:||Herz, B. and Kiljański, K. (2016) Movie Piracy and Displaced Sales in Europe: Evidence from Six Countries. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2844167 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2844167|
|Key Related Studies:|
|About the Data|
|Data Description:||The study analyses data from a previous online survey (conducted in September/October 2014), with a total of 28,344 respondents. The survey asked respondents to identify movies they had watched from a selection of 100 top box office movies. Thereafter, respondents were asked how they consumed this movie (e.g. in the cinema, through a legal download, through a file-sharing site etc.).|
|Data Type:||Secondary data|
|Secondary Data Sources:|
|Data Collection Methods:|
|Data Analysis Methods:|
|Cross Country Study?:||Yes|
|Government or policy study?:||No|
|Time Period(s) of Collection:||
“This paper presents estimates of lost movie sales due to unpaid movie consumption. We are the first to provide estimates that are recent, representative of the internet-using population, and cover multiple countries. Based on an online questionnaire with almost 30,000 respondents, we document that one unpaid (first) viewing of a movie displaces about 0.37 units of paid viewings. Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we show that this implies that unpaid movie viewings reduced movie sales in Europe by about 4.4% during the sample period. Lost sales differ substantially by country: they are in the range of 1.65% for Germany and 10.4% for Spain. We also find that 94% of lost sales are due to unpaid viewings by a small group of only 20% of consumers. Our findings have important implications for copyright policy.”
Main Results of the Study
Of the 100 movies surveyed, an average of 16.88 movies had been watched by respondents, of which 11.6% had obtained without paying. Only 26% of the movies had been watched more than once.
Overall, 4.38% of paid movie sales were lost through displacement across the dataset. These rates are consistent across France, UK, Poland, and Sweden, with very low rates observed in Germany (1.65%) and the highest rates in Spain(10.4%).
Displacement of sales is concentrated, as 20% of respondents were responsible for 94% of such displacement. Men are more likely to not pay for a movie, and estimated displacements are highest between an age range of 18-24 years old.
The authors also note a potential “sampling” effect, where respondents who initially do not pay to watch a movie will be slightly more likely to pay upon the second viewing (though conclude that this is not substantial enough to negate the overall effect of displaced sales).
Policy Implications as Stated By Author
The authors find that displaced sales rates are less than one-to-one, suggesting that respondents would not have consumed movies at all if they were not available illegally. Whilst they may have socially beneficial effects, the rate of displaced sales for movies remain high; as this as primarily a result of a small group of offenders, policymakers should take a targeted approach to enforcement.