Van der Ende et al (2014)
|Van der Ende et al (2014)|
|Title:||Estimating displacement rates of copyrighted content in the EU|
|Author(s):||Martin van der Ende, Joost Poort, Robert Haffner, Patrick de Bas, Anastasia Yagafarova, Sophie Rohlfs, Harry van Til|
|Citation:||Van der Ende, M., Poort, J., Haffner, R., de Bas, P., Yagafarova, A., Rohlfs, S., and van Til, H. (2014) Estimating displacement rates of copyrighted content in the EU. A study prepared for the European Commission.|
|Key Related Studies:|
|Linked by:||Poort et al (2018)|
|About the Data|
|Data Description:||The study uses data generated from (a) structured interviews with national authorities and content providers, and (b) surveys across Germany, UK, Spain, France, Poland and Sweden (“representative” of the EU as a whole). Econometric analyses were applied to uncover:
• Displacement rates based on the number of transactions of the respondents;
• Displacement rates of 100 popular films, depending how they had been accessed; and
• Determining whether respondents would still be willing to pay for content if the only way to access the content was by paying.
The sample was generated using Survey Sampling International online techniques, resulting in 30,000 respondents (approximately 5,000 from each representative country).
|Data Type:||Primary data|
|Secondary Data Sources:|
|Data Collection Methods:|
|Data Analysis Methods:|
|Cross Country Study?:||Yes|
|Government or policy study?:||Yes|
|Time Period(s) of Collection:||
“The extent to which digital consumption of pirated materials displaces legitimate purchases is of fundamental importance for EU copyright policy design. The European Commission has commissioned Ecorys to carry out a study on the relation between online copyright infringement (digital piracy) and sales of copyrighted content. This study adds to the existing literature in at least three ways. Firstly, it compares piracy rates in multiple EU Member States calculated according to the same methodology. This makes it possible to compare results between countries. Secondly, displacement rates are estimated in the presence of an important recent phenomenon, i.e. the widespread availability of a wide variety of services for downloading or streaming content. Thirdly, the study includes minors to assess the extent of piracy among this group.”
Main Results of the Study
Displacement rates (generally):
The study finds no “robustly significant findings” to support the hypothesis that illegal online transactions displace legal sales revenue. Illegal online transactions appear to have a positive effect on the amount of legal streams, and in the case of games, illegal transactions in fact appear to induce legal transactions. Similarly with music, the displacement rate is estimated to be zero, with illegal transactions having a positive effect on live visits to concerts.
Displacement rates of 100 popular films:
More significant findings are apparent here, with 40% of legal transactions displaced by illegal transactions. Respondents who viewed a film for a second time also demonstrated less willingness to pay than if they were viewing a film for the first time.
Willingness to pay for content:
80% of illegal downloaders are unwilling to pay the current market rates for films and TV series. Furthermore, as 73% of respondents would not be willing to pay more than the lowest market rate, it is suggested that legal downloads could not be feasibly recouped if illegal downloads became unavailable. In respect of books, music, and games, the market rate largely corresponds to participants willingness to pay. Of the countries surveyed, the UK has the highest willingness to pay across all areas (tying with Sweden in respect of music, France for books, and Germany for games).
Policy Implications as Stated By Author
Whilst the authors do not make any explicit policy recommendations, they highlight the lack of evidence that illegal transactions reduce the number of legal (paid) transactions. Whilst displacement rates for the 100 top films appear to be significant, other findings point to extra-legal factors (such as the very low willingness of consumers to pay) which suggests that outright banning of illegal transactions would not help recoup displaced sales. In combination, the study suggests that the alleged “value gap” is not statistically evidenced.