Oh, Wallsten and Lovin (2019)
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Source Details
Oh, Wallsten and Lovin (2019) | |
Title: | Do Pirated Video Streams Crowd Out Non-Pirated Video Streams? Evidence from Online Activity |
Author(s): | Oh, S., Wallsten, S., Lovin, N. |
Year: | 2019 |
Citation: | Oh, S., Wallsten, S. and Lovin, N. (2019) Do Pirated Video Streams Crowd Out Non-Pirated Video Streams? Evidence from Online Activity. Tech Policy Institute Working Paper. |
Link(s): | Open Access |
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About the Data | |
Data Description: | Data concerning raw internet traffic were obtained from ComScore Total Home Panel. This includes over one trillion observations of internet data from 19,764 American households and their 468,612 devices. The Study uses various econometric techniques to measure whether pirated streams displaced time spent watching Netflix, Hulu, YouTube and Amazon video. |
Data Type: | Secondary data |
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Cross Country Study?: | No |
Comparative Study?: | No |
Literature review?: | No |
Government or policy study?: | No |
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Abstract
“Does watching more pirated streaming video mean spending less time watching non-pirated streaming video? This study measures whether, and how much, time spent watching pirated video crowds out time spent on streaming video apps. While prior studies have estimated the impact of piracy on sales revenues, our study measures the impact of piracy on time spent on free and paid streaming apps. We combine big data tools with standard econometric techniques, including a two-stage least squares model, to analyze 5.25 terabytes of online activity data from 19,764 American households and their 468,612 devices from 2016 to 2017. The analysis suggests that every minute spent engaged with pirated video sites crowded out about 3.5minutes of time spent streaming video. Because pirated video files are generally more compressed than non-pirated video files and because they are frequently downloaded as entire files rather than streamed, as with non-pirate sites like Netflix and Amazon, we conclude that our results exhibit closer to a 1-to-1crowding out effect of piracy on over-the-top streaming video services.”
Main Results of the Study
The study finds that consumption of pirated streams crowds out consumption from non-pirated streaming apps: for every ten-minute time period spent on pirated streaming sites this is associated with approx 3.5 fewer minutes on a non-pirated streaming site. The study cautions that this figure may be underestimating the overall figure due to compression techniques used for pirated content and frequency of downloading pirated content (rather than streaming).
There is some variation of the crowding-out effect across the top five streaming services. For example, whilst this effect is noted for Netflix and Amazon, the effect with YouTube is slightly different. For every ten minutes of pirated streaming, this is associated with an additional 67 minutes of YouTube viewing. The study suggests this may be due to the more idiosyncratic viewing patterns on YouTube, which contains both user-generated and pirated materials, or the fact that this content is free, unlike non-pirated streaming sites.
Policy Implications as Stated By Author
The study does not offer any explicit policy conclusions.
Coverage of Study
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